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In Search of the Outlier: Why Venture Returns Aren’t Built on Averages

  • One company often defines the outcome of an entire portfolio.
  • Venture returns are not built on averages but on outliers like Airbnb, Uber, and Stripe that redefine the industry.
  • In venture capital, the focus is on identifying companies with power-law potential for outsized returns.
  • The majority of returns in venture capital usually come from 1–2 standout companies.
  • Success in venture capital involves identifying outliers with the capacity for extreme impact.
  • AI is accelerating power law dynamics by enabling faster scaling and automation in startups.
  • Cultural mindsets in various regions influence venture outcomes, with some emphasizing steady growth over extreme returns.
  • Companies like UiPath, Spotify, Checkout.com, and Revolut showcase how outliers can emerge from different regions.
  • Investors and founders should focus on breakout potential and seek partners who understand the goal of reshaping the industry curve.

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