Citi analysts pointed to six key factors that will help determine the price of crypto in the coming year, including ETF activity, regulation, and the future market for a type of crypto known as stablecoins.
A supportive macro backdrop is expected by analysts into the first quarter, but the outlook thereafter is less certain. It could turn depending on Trump's economic policies and stock volatility.
The continued inflows to spot ETFs will provide a further driver for crypto growth. Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen inflows of $36.4bn since they began trading in January, while Ethereum spot ETFs have garnered $2.4bn since hitting the market in July.
Crypto portfolio allocation will be key to future returns. The Citi analysts say crypto returns need to be priced a few percentage points above equities' expected returns to justify a 1% allocation of portfolios.
Stablecoin issuance will help create a healthier crypto market, and continued stablecoin issuance will likely help stablecoins continue to lead the way toward decentralized finance. More stablecoins entering the space could threaten long-time stablecoin leader Tether's leadership.
Widespread adoption is required to produce returns beyond the post-election euphoria, say the analysts. Bitcoin volumes, stablecoin market values, and rising adoption in countries with currency problems, such as Turkey, Argentina, and Venezuela must be monitored.
Regulation will be a reigning theme next year, and a shift from regulation by enforcement to a more legislative-based approach is expected.
Crypto had a blockbuster year, registering a 90%+ increase in total market cap according to Citi analysts. The euphoria has pushed the total crypto market value to $3.4 trillion, almost double its size from last year, despite a sell off following hawkish remarks at the Fed's meeting last week.
Paul Atkins, a crypto supporter, has been appointed chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Crypto pioneers the Trump family will likely have a role in the industry.