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Aussie Analyst Foresees ‘Monumental Market Shift’ in Coming Months
- Australian crypto analyst, Miles Deutscher predicts a possible market turnaround in Q4 2024, expecting the fourth quarter to 'spark a monumental market shift'.
- Historical data suggests that the best returns for crypto occur between October and April, which could signify an upcoming boom period, with Q4 being Bitcoin's the strongest quarter with average returns of +88.84%.
- Deutscher views the macro environment as a long-term bullish factor for crypto, regardless of who wins the US presidential election, but suggests that a Trump presidency could positively impact crypto due to his supportive stance.
- Deutscher predicts a decrease in retail interest and significant repayments from FTX could catalyze a market turnaround.
- Decreased retail interest already evident with most assets trading sideways, causing investors to lose interest.
- Past returns between May and September have been only around 620%, while those between October and April have been 13,656,203%.
- Deutscher believes that global liquidity, highly correlated with BTC more than with equities or gold, is increasing and expected to rise into 2025, possibly boosting crypto markets further.
- Deutscher says it is actually riskier not to be exposed to the market than it is to be exposed to it, although he acknowledges that crypto remains highly volatile.
- FTX repaying $16 billion to creditors, with $12 billion in cash likely to re-enter the market, is expected to offset the negative impact caused by past Mt. Gox/German selling.
- The decreased retail interest, along with FTX's repayment, is expected to create aggressive expansionary phases, resulting in the positive upside outlook of the market.
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