Bitcoin's price historically surges to a multiple of its 2-year moving average during bull markets, but the multiples have been declining over time.
Peak valuations of Bitcoin, compared to its 2Y SMA, have decreased from 15 times to just 2.65 times in the most recent cycle, indicating a maturing and less volatile market.
Alphractal estimates that a Bitcoin price of around $159,000 aligns with the 2Y SMA x 2.65 mark, potentially acting as a ceiling for future momentum.
Although Bitcoin's growth may be slowing, analysts at Alphractal remain optimistic about its long-term trajectory, suggesting that the asset's structural strength continues to support potential outperformance over the long run.