Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, predicts Bitcoin could soar to $1 million due to forthcoming US economic policies under Donald Trump's second term.
Hayes argues the US is moving towards an approach that retains power regardless of whether policies are capitalist, socialist or fascist, which is the hallmark of Chinese policy.
Hayes believes policies focused on re-shoring critical industries to the US, financed by government spending and bank credit growth, will cause significant inflation and currency debasement, which will adversely affect holders of long-term bonds or savings deposits.
Hayes advocates for investing in assets like Bitcoin and gold to hedge against this potential inflation and currency debasement.
Hayes explores potential regulatory changes such as exempting banks from the Supplemental Leverage Ratio (SLR), which would allow them to purchase an unlimited amount of government debt without additional capital requirements, thereby paving the way for infinite QE directed at productive sectors of the economy.
Hayes believes the combination of aggressive fiscal policies and regulatory changes will result in an explosion of bank credit, leading to higher inflation and a weakening US dollar. This is how Bitcoin goes to $1 million, as the most fiat money in history will be chasing a safe haven.
Hayes urges investors to position themselves accordingly in anticipation of these macroeconomic shifts, by getting long and staying long.
Hayes backs his claim by referencing his custom index that tracks US bank credit supply, demonstrating that Bitcoin has outperformed other assets when adjusted for bank credit growth.
Bitcoin stands to benefit the most due to its scarcity and decentralized nature.