Citi has assigned a low probability to the scenario of the US imposing tariffs on Indian pharmaceuticals, with companies having lower exposure to US generics being the least affected.
Companies with high exposure to US generics, including Zydus, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRL), and Aurobindo Pharma, could face a 9-12% Ebitda hit.
However, companies like Torrent Pharma, Sun Pharma, and Divi's Laboratories, with lower exposure to US generics, would be the least affected, with an estimated 1-3% hit to Ebitda.
Citi believes the probability of tariffs on Indian generics is low, citing limited manufacturing of generics in the US and the high dependence on Indian generics.