SBI projects that the average CPI inflation for FY26 will be between 3.0-3.2%, significantly lower than RBI's estimate of 3.7% and below the average of 4.6% in FY25.
The recent 50 basis points rate cut by RBI in June has led to a sharp moderation in inflation, with SBI foreseeing benign inflation trends and focusing on supporting capital formation for sustained growth.
India's CPI inflation in June 2025 hit a 77-month low at 2.10%, attributed to a sharp decline in food inflation. However, imported inflation continued to rise for the 13th consecutive month, driven by higher gold and silver prices.
The report hints at a possible 25 basis points rate cut in the future to boost economic growth amid global uncertainties, aiming to strike a balance between growth and inflation in line with the MPC's data-dependent approach.