Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists predict a 65% chance of a US recession in the next 12 months.
The forecast is based on President Donald Trump's tariffs on US trading partners.
Goldman Sachs expects a 1% decline in the GDP and a rise in the unemployment rate to 5.7%.
The severity of the recession would likely be less than previous ones due to strong private sector balance sheets and potential trade deals lowering tariff rates.