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How Accurate Are Etherscan and EthGasStation’s Ethereum Transaction Time Estimates?
- Estimators like EthGasStation and Etherscan are important tools for Ethereum users due to the uncertainty in transaction processing times.
- The accuracy of transaction processing time estimates by these platforms had not been empirically studied prior.
- Data from EthGasStation (Gas Price API and Prediction Table API) and Etherscan (Pending Transaction page and Gas Tracker) was used to evaluate prediction accuracy.
- Accuracy was determined by comparing actual processing times with predictions, calculating absolute error for each studied transaction.
- Models were ranked based on AE distributions using statistical tests and effect size calculations.
- The Alpha centrality method was used to assign ranks to models based on their performance in predicting transaction processing times.
- At a global level, all four models were found to have equivalent prediction accuracy with negligible effect sizes.
- Stratifying the analysis by gas price categories showed varying performance, with specific models excelling in different price categories.
- Developers aiming for high prediction accuracy may need to utilize multiple models from different estimation services based on gas price categories.
- Etherscan Gas Tracker performed better for cheaper transactions, while EthGasStation Gas Price API excelled in other gas price categories.
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