HSBC Global Research forecasts a $30-40 billion annual boost in discretionary consumption in India over the next 18-24 months.
Factors driving this surge include tax cuts in FY26, the implementation of the 8th Pay Commission in FY27, lower interest rates, and inflation.
Reduced personal tax rates from FY26 are expected to save taxpayers $12 billion, while the 8th Pay Commission could result in an additional income of $18-26 billion.
Lower interest rates may save $3-4 billion on mortgage payments, with potential additional savings from lower inflation.
HSBC is optimistic about medium-term prospects despite a lack of significant triggers in the near term (6-9 months).
The fourth quarter earnings performance in India was better than feared, with 61% of the top 500 companies beating EPS estimates.