India's Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts that the country will receive 106 percent of the long period average (LPA) of rainfall during the monsoon season, slightly higher than the initial forecast of 105 percent.
IMD released state-wise forecasts for the monsoon season, with above-normal rainfall expected in central, south, and monsoon core zones, and normal to above normal rainfall in the north-west region. However, below-normal rainfall is anticipated in the east and north-east meteorological subdivisions.
While IMD officials see the rainfall since the onset of monsoon as a 'bonus', they also warn of a potential 'hiatus' in monsoon progress after June 4, as some global models suggest weakening. Additionally, some isolated areas in states like Punjab, Haryana, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu may experience below-normal rainfall.
The country is likely to witness above-normal rainfall in June, keeping maximum temperatures in check. However, while maximum temperatures could be below normal, minimum (night) temperatures may rise above normal next month. The newly unveiled Bharat Forecast System (BFS) will aid in short and medium-range weather predictions during the monsoon season.