Jefferies predicts a sideways movement in Indian markets for FY26 due to an expected decline in nominal GDP growth, impacting earning-per-share estimates.
India's nominal GDP growth is forecasted to drop to 9% in FY26, the lowest since FY2004, while real GDP growth is expected to be healthy at 6.5% with lower inflation.
Weaker nominal GDP growth could lead to subdued corporate revenue growth and credit growth, affecting earnings momentum.
Jefferies anticipates banks and realty sectors to outperform in FY26, with the MSCI India Index showing an 8% return in January–December due to their strong performance.