India's merchandise exports to the US are expected to decline by $5.76 billion this year due to increased American duties on sectors like marine items, gold, electrical, and electronics.
The impact analysis by think tank GTRI suggests that India's competitive position in certain product segments could help mitigate some losses.
Textiles, apparel, ceramic products, inorganic chemicals, and pharmaceuticals sectors may experience modest gains despite the overall decrease in exports.
The US has imposed additional tariffs, including a 26% duty on Indian goods, affecting various sectors except for pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and select energy goods.
In 2024, India exported goods worth $89.81 billion to the US, but the new tariffs are expected to reduce exports by significant percentages in different product categories.
Product groups such as fish, iron or steel articles, diamonds, gold products, vehicle parts, electrical, telecom, and electronic products could see notable declines.
High-value items like energy products, pharmaceuticals, and copper have been exempted from country-specific tariffs, but industrial goods like steel and automobiles will face a 25% tariff.
Electronics and smartphones from India facing a steep duty may result in a 12% decrease in exports to the US, impacting the country's ranking as a major supplier in this category.
Seafood exports from India could decline by 20.2% due to new tariffs, affecting the country's position as the third-largest seafood supplier to the US.
Similarly, exports of gold jewellery and cut and polished diamonds, vehicle and auto components are also projected to decrease significantly, impacting India's global trade.