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India's Inflation May Range Between 2.5–2.75% In Q2, Q3, Enam Holdings' Sridhar Sivaram Says

  • India's inflation is projected to range between 2.5-2.75% in the second and third quarters, according to Sridhar Sivaram, investment director at Enam Holdings.
  • Enam Holdings projected a 50-basis point rate cut by RBI in June based on the inflation trajectory, supported by factors like the base effect and distribution of rainfall favoring inflation decline.
  • Sivaram notes that India will need cues from the US Federal Reserve as the interest rate differential between the US and India is at its lowest in 20 years, potentially allowing RBI to reduce interest rates further, with a possible 25-basis point rate cut in September.
  • India's tariffs on products like automobiles are relatively high, but negotiations and recent pacts indicate a complex scenario. Despite this, India's impact from tariffs is expected to be less compared to China and Mexico due to lower exposure.

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