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Is the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Over? Rational Root Explains Why This Time Might Not Be Different
- Bitcoin's historic four-year cycles are being questioned as institutional adoption may be altering its rhythm.
- On-chain metrics, ETF flows, market psychology, and corporate accumulation are key factors in understanding Bitcoin's future moves.
- The Bitcoin market is not considered overheated yet according to on-chain metrics, indicating bullish territory.
- The current cycle is showing a more stable structure compared to previous cycles, potentially due to institutional involvement.
- ETF flows have seen significant demand, along with stacking from corporate treasuries, shifting Bitcoin's supply dynamics.
- Despite institutional influence, human psychology still plays a dominant role in Bitcoin's market cycles.
- Bitcoin may be approaching the thrill and euphoria phase, historically preceding market peaks.
- Rise of Bitcoin treasury companies is seen as a bet on fiat devaluation and Bitcoin appreciation, with strategic debt use.
- Forecasts suggest Bitcoin could reach between 140 and 240 but not half a million this cycle, citing macro risks and consolidation potential.
- While Bitcoin's market structure is evolving, the foundational cycle mechanics still hold, but investors should remain cautious.
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