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Israel-Iran Conflict: Oil Supply Security At Risk, Says IEA's Fatih Birol
- The International Energy Agency (IEA) has expressed concerns about the future of oil markets, pointing to new uncertainties amidst rising geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict.
- IEA's report, Oil 2025, highlights significant shifts in supply and demand growth drivers, emphasizing the immediate energy security risks posed by geopolitical tensions.
- IEA's Executive Director, Fatih Birol, underlined the importance of energy security and collaboration between energy producers and consumers to mitigate risks.
- The IEA's medium-term outlook suggests that global oil supply is expected to outpace demand growth due to geopolitical strains and changing economic dynamics.
- China's oil demand is projected to peak in 2027 due to increased electric vehicle adoption and infrastructure developments like high-speed rail and natural gas-powered trucks.
- US oil supply is forecasted to grow more slowly as companies emphasize capital discipline, although the US remains a significant non-OPEC supply contributor in the future.
- Global oil demand is expected to rise by 2.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2030, reaching approximately 105.5 mb/d, while global oil production capacity is set to exceed 114.7 mb/d by the end of the decade.
- The growth in oil production capacity will be fueled by increasing natural gas liquids and other non-crude liquids to meet global demand for petrochemical feedstocks.
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