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LNG poised to lead long-haul trucking in India after 2030: PNGRB
- LNG is projected to lead long-haul trucking in India after 2030, as per the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) report on natural gas projections for 2030 and 2040.
- The report cites favorable global market trends for LNG availability, gas infrastructure, and supportive policies as key factors driving increased natural gas adoption.
- India currently operates around 700 LNG-fired trucks with minimal usage, compared to China's significantly higher numbers.
- Global LNG supply is expected to increase post 2027, offering India opportunities for long-term supply deals at competitive prices.
- The regulator anticipates that LNG availability below $9 per million British thermal units on a Delivered ex-ship (DES) basis could boost demand.
- Diesel-powered road transport contributes a significant portion of freight and emissions, making LNG a logical and cheaper fuel source for decarbonizing long-haul trucking.
- The Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas (MoPNG) plans to open 1,000 filling stations for LNG vehicles along key highways and industrial corridors.
- To ensure price stability, some quarters demand the allocation of domestic gas for LNG vehicles.
- The PNGRB report projects the number of LNG trucks to reach 30,000 by 2030 in the moderate growth scenario and potentially 50,000 in the accelerated growth scenario.
- By 2040, the number of LNG trucks could grow to 2,00,000 in the moderate growth scenario and 5,00,000 in the accelerated growth scenario as per the regulator's projections.
- Under the Good to Go (GtG) scenario, India's natural gas demand is estimated to rise by 297 MSCMD by 2030 and 495 MSCMD by 2040.
- In a more optimistic Good to Best (GtB) scenario, natural gas consumption could reach 365 MSCMD by 2030 and 630 MSCMD by 2040.
- City gas distribution is expected to be the largest natural gas demand driver, accounting for a significant portion of total consumption by 2030 and 2040.
- Gas consumption by refineries and petrochemical complexes is projected to nearly double by 2030 with growing focus on petrochemical integration.
- Overall, India's natural gas consumption is set to increase significantly, ranging from around 187 MSCMD to potentially 630 MSCMD by 2040 under various scenarios.
- The projections by PNGRB highlight the potential growth and impact of LNG in India's long-haul trucking sector and overall natural gas consumption.
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