<ul data-eligibleForWebStory="true">Fred Krueger argues that traditional halving-based models are inadequate for predicting Bitcoin's behavior in the face of institutional demand.Institutional demand from ETFs and treasury-focused buyers now outweighs the impact of reduced mining rewards in shaping Bitcoin cycles.Krueger criticizes the reliance on limited historical data points for market cycle predictions, cautioning against attempts to time the market top.He suggests investors adopt a long-term strategy based on the Kelly Criterion, emphasizing a steady 70% allocation and periodic rebalancing.Krueger's advice aligns with a shifting crypto market paradigm that emphasizes institutional flows over traditional mining economics.