<ul data-eligibleForWebStory="false"><li>Morgan Stanley expects India's retail inflation to reach around 4% by March 2026, with inflation projected to ease to approximately 1.5% in July and average between 2% to 2.5% in the quarters ending September and December.</li><li>The brokerage has revised its Consumer Price Index forecast for FY26 to 3% from 3.5% due to a continued easing in headline inflation, which slowed to 2.1% year-on-year in June, the lowest since Feb 2019.</li><li>Morgan Stanley anticipates another 25bps rate cut in the December quarter policy, citing weaker domestic growth expectations compared to the RBI's estimates due to a global growth slowdown.</li><li>The brokerage foresees a further softening in headline CPI, with favorable base effects and slower food inflation contributing to a projected moderation in near-term inflation.</li></ul>

Morgan Stanley Expects Retail Inflation To Climb Back To 4% By March 2026

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