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Morgan Stanley Raises Q-Comm Market Forecast To $57 Bn, Bets On Eternal

  • Morgan Stanley revised the Indian quick commerce market forecast to reach $57 Bn by 2030, up from the previous estimate of $42 Bn, attributing it to factors like deepening online grocery penetration and growing consumer reliance.
  • The average spend per customer on quick commerce platforms like Eternal and Swiggy is estimated to be $300 and $250 per year respectively, with household spending expected to reach $1,630 by 2030.
  • Quick commerce is projected to represent 3.7% of the Indian retail market and 33% of the ecommerce market by 2030, with grocery segment penetration expected to increase to 76% by 2030.
  • Morgan Stanley is bullish on Eternal's Blinkit and reaffirmed Eternal as its top pick over Swiggy, citing market leadership, superior cost structure, healthier unit economics, and potential stock price floor, with a raised price target for Swiggy's stock by 22%.

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