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New climate model significantly improves prediction of life-threatening rainfall events
- Extreme rainfall events are intensifying worldwide, posing significant threats to human lives, infrastructure, and ecosystems.
- Recent studies reveal that short-duration rainfall intensities often exceed predictions with “super Clausius-Clapeyron” behavior, highlighting the critical role of storm dynamics.
- Convective storms such as supercells and mesoscale convective systems (MCS) are among the potent drivers of flash floods.
- Climate change contributes to rainfall intensification, emphasizing the urgent need for improved forecasting and early warning systems.
- Scientists have developed a groundbreaking conceptual model to enhance the prediction of life-threatening rainfall events.
- The model identifies a distinctive three-layered atmospheric structure critical for extreme rainfall, offering a pathway to better forecasting.
- Despite advancements in high-resolution numerical weather models, forecasting short-duration extreme rainfall remains a significant challenge.
- Researchers propose a novel “ingredients-based” forecasting method that aims to improve early warnings for vulnerable communities.
- The study’s conceptual model also incorporates large-scale atmospheric patterns that provide optimal conditions for sub-hourly rainfall extremes.
- Accurate predictions can save lives and bolster public confidence in meteorological services.
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