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Bloomberg Quint

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Image Credit: Bloomberg Quint

Oil Curve Shift Shows Fears Of Protracted Mideast Conflict

  • Concerns over Israel's strike on Iran are strengthening the oil futures curve.
  • Front-month Brent prices surged by up to 13% alongside movement for contracts further out.
  • The typical contango structure signaling loose balances long-term has disappeared.
  • The spread between two nearest December Brent contracts flipped to backwardation at $2.30 per barrel.
  • Various timespreads, including Brent's prompt spread, have rallied significantly.
  • Oil options are very bullish due to a potential escalation in Mideast conflict, with implied volatility higher.
  • Warren Patterson from ING Groep NV warns of potential disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • A significant disruption could push oil prices to $120 a barrel; Brent futures currently near $75 a barrel.

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