<ul data-eligibleForWebStory="false"><li>Polymarket and Kalshi traders' perceived probability of a US recession this year has significantly decreased in recent months after initially surging in popularity when users correctly predicted Trump's election win in November.</li><li>Both prediction markets provide insights into the probability of a recession, with Polymarket estimating a 20% chance and Kalshi at 19%, down from higher percentages in the past.</li><li>Prediction gurus acknowledge the benefits of using online betting platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi as recession indicators due to their real-time data and crowd wisdom, but caution about drawbacks such as susceptibility to sentiment swings and bias.</li><li>While these tools can offer valuable sentiment insights, they have limitations and should not be viewed as crystal balls for predicting recessions, as there is ambiguity surrounding the causes and timing of economic downturns.</li></ul>

Polymarket traders doubt there will be a recession. We asked prediction gurus if you should listen.

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