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‘Significant’ risk of Amazon forest dieback if global warming overshoots 1.5C
- A new study warns of a significant risk of Amazon forest dieback if global warming overshoots 1.5C, leading to a shift to a dry savannah.
- Overshooting 1.5C would trigger dieback in significant portions of the Amazon and Siberian forests, impacting their ecosystems.
- Climate model simulations show that 37% of scenarios exceed 1.5C in 2100, with a further risk increasing to 55% by 2300.
- Different mitigation pathways, including renewables and negative emissions, were assessed for their impact on forest health.
- Increased CO2 levels can boost forest growth, but other climate change impacts like heat stress can be detrimental.
- The study projects future Amazon dieback scenarios based on temperature and rainfall conditions, particularly in hot, dry environments.
- Uncertainties arise from varying climate sensitivities, indicating risks even under optimistic mitigation scenarios.
- Researchers emphasize the need to consider a wide range of possible futures and not solely rely on large-scale CO2 removal for forest stabilization.
- Challenges remain in vegetation models' representation of forest response to CO2 and the inclusion of crucial factors like fire and soil moisture stress.
- The study highlights the importance of field data collection to enhance model accuracy and informs upcoming IPCC assessments on tipping points.
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