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TAM Is Basic Astrology for Capitalists
- The Total Addressable Market (TAM) slide in startup pitches has become a ritual, often more for showmanship than actual data accuracy.
- Instead of focusing on real metrics like traction, trial velocity, and friction to adoption, many pitch days devolve into feature creep brainstorming sessions.
- The startup ecosystem prioritizes being impressive over being focused, with TAM slides and shiny ideas getting more applause than grit and discipline.
- However, in 2025, there's a shift towards valuing tangible progress over venture astrology, with a focus on proving small successes before promising big ones.
- Legacy startup tropes like accelerator badges as divine rights and fantasy hockey stick growth graphs are being scrutinized for their lack of real substance.
- Investors now seek proof of viability through commercial traction and practical strategies, moving away from relying solely on big market projections.
- Key metrics like go-to-market fit, wedge strategies, and revenue density hold more weight than exaggerated TAM numbers in demonstrating startup potential.
- Emphasizing solving real problems, capturing customer value, and minimizing friction to adoption are now crucial for startup success in the modern landscape.
- Startups are encouraged to focus on trial velocity, iterative loops, and market network effects to demonstrate real growth potential and monetization strategies.
- Ultimately, the future of a startup is determined by concrete actions and decisions, not by fanciful projections or outdated startup traditions.
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