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The world’s next big environmental problem could come from space
- With a rise in satellite constellations forecasted in the coming years, the amount of space debris vaporizing in Earth’s atmosphere is set to grow in line with the size of the satellite fleets.
- The resulting metallic ash from satellites burning up in the atmosphere could harm the atmosphere and potentially alter the climate. Containing ozone-damaging substances, modelling studies have shown that some of its components can cool down Earth’s stratosphere, while others can warm it, increase nitrogen oxide and increase the frequency of thunderstorms.
- Doing so deposits satellite ash in the mid-atmospheric air for decades and emitting nitrogen oxide that could deplete the ozone layer, causing even more warming and potential additional ozone depletion.
- The annual amount of alumina from satellite reentries is already approaching that arising from incinerated meteorites. Under current worse-case scenarios, the human-made contribution of this pollutant will be 10 times the amount from natural sources by 2040.
- As the overall contribution of the space industry to overall ozone depletion is currently at 0.1%, researchers believe that more must be understood about the environmental impacts, so we can decide how to reduce either space traffic or emissions.
- For atmospheric scientists, the Salsa reentry gives them the chance to fill major gaps in their understanding. With the Cluster constellation coming back in 2025 and 2026, allowing scientists to repeat the experiment and learn from every previous campaign.
- The amount of space debris vaporizing in Earth’s atmosphere has more than doubled in the past few years. In 2019, some 115 satellites burned up in the atmosphere. As of late November, 2024 had already set a new record with 950 satellite reentries.
- Mega-constellations like SpaceX’s Starlink are adding to concerns. Currently consisting of about 6,500 satellites, the fleet is expected to mushroom to more than 40,000 at some point in the 2030s.
- Acquiring precise data about satellite burn-up is nearly impossible, with the closest scientists can get being remote sensing of a satellite’s final moments.
- Humankind has already suffered the long term effects of climate change, ozone depletion and contamination by forever chemicals, and researchers are worried that the damage from satellite pollution could span a similar timeline.
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