India may just escape the worst of the storm from the recently announced Trump tariffs, according to Neelkanth Mishra, chief economist at Axis Bank.
Only three out of the 12 trade groups, which account for 85% of the US imports, will contest the tariffs: Canada, China, and the European Union. Retaliatory measures will be serious only from China.
The Trump administration aims to maintain a multilateral world order, generate revenue, and weaken the strong US dollar. Uncertainty is expected in global markets for the next six to nine months.
India may remain relatively insulated from the economic risks. The monetary policy committee is likely to cut rates, with the repo rate potentially coming down to 6%.