The reactivation of suspended reciprocal tariffs by the United States could cause a 1.5% decline in world merchandise trade in 2025.
Global merchandise trade volume growth would reduce by 0.6% in 2025 due to reciprocal tariffs, with an additional 0.8% reduction from trade policy uncertainty.
Indian exporters may face challenges as imports by North America are predicted to drop by 9.6%.
The US-China trade disruption could lead to a significant trade diversion and create export opportunities for other suppliers.