The imposition of steep reciprocal tariffs by US President Donald Trump has triggered concern across global markets, and India is no exception.
Morgan Stanley sees downside risks of 30–60 basis points to India's financial year 2026 GDP growth estimate of 6.5%.
BofA remains cautious on Indian equities amid global uncertainty. It expects Nifty to return less than 7% in 2025, with small- and mid-caps facing potential downside.
Despite the surprise tariff levels, Jefferies sees no major near-term impact on large export sectors like IT services, pharma, and autos. The bigger concern is a potential US recession, which could hit global demand and hurt Indian exporters indirectly.