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Bloomberg Quint

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Image Credit: Bloomberg Quint

Trump's Tariff Trigger Growth Concerns: GDP Dip, Equity Volatility Seen Ahead

  • The imposition of steep reciprocal tariffs by US President Donald Trump has triggered concern across global markets, and India is no exception.
  • Morgan Stanley sees downside risks of 30–60 basis points to India's financial year 2026 GDP growth estimate of 6.5%.
  • BofA remains cautious on Indian equities amid global uncertainty. It expects Nifty to return less than 7% in 2025, with small- and mid-caps facing potential downside.
  • Despite the surprise tariff levels, Jefferies sees no major near-term impact on large export sectors like IT services, pharma, and autos. The bigger concern is a potential US recession, which could hit global demand and hurt Indian exporters indirectly.

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