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Ukraine war shows NATO's biggest problem isn't its strategy, think tank argues
- The Ukraine war has highlighted that NATO requires more ammunition and defence production to replace losses in a long war; however, powers such as Russia and China have invested in an enormous amount of artillery, expending munitions that have strained the economies of the combatants.
- There is little evidence to suggest that the war requires fundamental changes to key ideas and terms in UK or Allied joint operational-level doctrine according to RAND Europe think tank; NATO's doctrine is sound in theory, but most of its allies lack the resources to implement it.
- The Ukraine war is a conflict of contradictions as it combines technologies such as drones with artillery barrages and trench warfare straight out of 1917; distinguishing between the old and new is challenging, and it remains unclear what the future of airpower is, given that crewed aircraft have had a limited impact on the Ukraine war.
- The lack of airpower use suggests that NATO armies will face a much more difficult ground fight.
- Drones have taken the place of crewed aircraft for reconnaissance and attack purposes, and smaller expendable drones have replaced larger UAVs. Massive drone use has failed to provide either side with victory.
- Russia has achieved steady but incremental gains through human wave assaults, while Ukraine has tried to adopt Western-style manoeuvre warfare with limited success.
- One of the most significant lessons for NATO is the importance of adaptability. As the war in Ukraine illustrates, focusing on the development of both innovation (combining old with new) with adaptation is essential, rather than solely prioritising the new.
- The war has emphasised the importance of a narrative- and audience-centric approach, and the crucial but often overlooked role of a national will to fight.
- Another sustained lesson is the need to have sufficient quantities of personnel and materials to absorb and replenish the constant drain of combat losses in a long war. RAND warns that efficiency from new technology cannot replace the general need for mass.
- The UK is especially affected as it faces a shrinking army and others that are a fraction of their Cold War strength. It may barely be able to scrape together a full-strength mechanised division in the event of a war with Russia, such as an invasion of Poland or Eastern Europe.
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