US President Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariff of 27% on imports from India effective from April 9.
The impact of the import tariffs on India's growth estimates is expected to be negative, specifically through indirect channels like weaker corporate confidence and deferred capex cycle.
The implementation of the impending trade deal with the US by 2025 may help reduce the downside risk from higher tariffs.
Morgan Stanley expects the Reserve Bank of India to cut key lending rates, change the stance to accommodative, and have a deeper rate easing cycle to support domestic demand amidst the uncertain external demand environment.