Investors have already chopped more than $5 trillion off the value of companies in the S&P 500 Index over the last three sessions as they fret that an escalating trade war risks slashing profits.
For the first quarter, analysts now see year-over-year earnings growth of 6.7% for the S&P 500, down from about 11.1% in early November when Trump was elected.
Trump’s tariffs are threatening to upend multinational companies’ supply chains and weigh on export demand. Meanwhile, recession fears are shaking consumer confidence.
Margin forecasts for the first quarter are currently sitting at 15.6%, down from the level of 16% seen in January.