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What 2025 May Hold for Cybersecurity
- The limitations of large-language models have provided ammunition to the naysayers. Cybercriminals and nation-state actors have shown interest in applying LLMs to some of the mundane tasks they’re faced with when trying to breach organizations.
- Malware distribution will bounce back in 2025 despite the arrests and takedown of more than 100 servers worldwide. As disruptions impose costs on threat actors, we'd expect targeted malware families will rebound with new versions circulating.
- Intel 471’s patented malware emulation and monitoring system showed a sharp drop between the Q2 and Q3 in delivered payloads. However, since the distribution of loader or dropper malware is critical for follow-on attacks, there is market demand for access to compromised machines.
- Geopolitical events and cybersecurity are becoming ever closer entwined. Offensive cyber actions are used by nations for espionage, intellectual property (IP) theft, pre-positioning in case of conflict and spreading misinformation.
- China and Russia both pose significant cyber threats with their advanced persistent threat (APT) groups. These groups infiltrate supply chains and compromise major software vendors for espionage and IP theft purposes.
- US Department of Justice has been aggressive in identifying, naming, sanctioning, and indicting threat actors, both in the nation-state and financially motivated cybercrime spheres. A perceived weakening in U.S. approach to accountability could lead to more aggressive activity.
- The productivity gains of AI are worrisome in that it increases the scale and quality of attacks, be it through polished phishing, better-selected targets, or faster and more complete reconnaissance.
- Artificial intelligence (AI) will enhance, scale attacks. While threat actors may not be writing exploits with AI, yet, more customized AI tools are being offered on forums making it more accessible to malicious actors to experiment.
- Intel 471 has observed one targeted malware family, Bumblebee, rebound with a new version circulating in October 2024. The observed changes in development indicate that actors are actively refining their malware despite exhibiting low activity and lacking significant sophistication.
- Cybersecurity has generally been one of the few non-partisan issues in an increasingly hostile U.S. political environment, and US Department of Justice may continue holding threat actors accountable.
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