The World Trade Organization slashed its forecast for merchandise trade this year as soaring US tariffs and broader uncertainty hammer international commerce.
In its new forecasts, the Geneva-based WTO expects the volume of world merchandise trade to decline by 0.2% in 2025 — almost three percentage points lower than it would have been without the US-led trade war, marking a dramatic reversal from expectations at the start of the year. Trade is forecast to rebound by 2.5% in 2026.
North American trade will be hardest hit while Asia and Europe will continue to see modest growth.
The disruption in US-China trade is expected to trigger significant trade diversion, raising concerns among third markets about increased competition from China.