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Arxiv
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A causal viewpoint on prediction model performance under changes in case-mix: discrimination and calibration respond differently for prognosis and diagnosis predictions
- Prediction models need reliable performance for diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment planning.
- Changes in case-mix can impact model performance.
- Discrimination and calibration respond differently depending on the causal direction of the prediction task.
- Understanding the causal structure of the prediction task is important for developing and evaluating prediction models in different clinical settings.
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