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Universe Today
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As Expected, the Threat from 2024 YR4 has Essentially Dropped to Zero
- Initial estimates of Asteroid 2024 YR4's chance of striking Earth in 2032 has decreased from 2.8% to 0.001% according to the European Space Agency.
- Being discovered post-Christmas by ATLAS telescope in Chile, 2024 YR4's impact probability triggered our planetary defense.
- While small in size (40-90 meters), the asteroid could still cause significant damage if it hit a populated area.
- Observations initially showed a spike in the asteroid's impact probability, which then decreased significantly over time.
- Advanced telescopes like the ESO's Very Large Telescope struggled to observe the asteroid due to its size and darkness.
- Close monitoring by the ESA's Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre helped refine 2024 YR4's orbit and threat assessment.
- The asteroid's elliptical orbit crosses Earth's path, bringing it close to our planet periodically.
- The rise and fall of impact probabilities due to gravitational interactions with Earth and the Moon is a common pattern in asteroid monitoring.
- Efforts are ongoing to detect and track potentially hazardous asteroids, with future missions aiming at asteroid deflection strategies.
- While the threat from 2024 YR4 has decreased, it highlights the ongoing need for planetary defense measures and understanding space risks.
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