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Image Credit: Arxiv

Cherry-Picking in Time Series Forecasting: How to Select Datasets to Make Your Model Shine

  • Cherry-picking datasets in time series forecasting can significantly distort the perceived performance of forecasting methods.
  • Selective dataset selection can lead to an exaggeration of the effectiveness of forecasting methods.
  • By selectively choosing just four datasets, 46% of methods could be considered best in class.
  • Increasing the number of datasets tested from 3 to 6 reduces the risk of incorrectly identifying an algorithm as the best one by approximately 40%.

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