<ul data-eligibleForWebStory="true"><li>When scientists spot an asteroid with a trajectory close to Earth, they calculate the probability of a potential collision.</li><li>Frequent monitoring and continued observation help scientists refine predictions and understand the asteroid's trajectory.</li><li>The impact probability fluctuates based on new observational data, with the asteroid 2024 YR4 initially having a high probability which later dropped to almost zero.</li><li>Astrometry is used to determine an asteroid's orbit and calculate the impact probability, which can vary based on the size of the error ellipse and level of uncertainty.</li></ul>

How do scientists calculate the probability that an asteroid could hit Earth

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