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How to spot a successful business before they become successful

  • To evaluate the potential success of a company, factors such as market size, product-market fit, customer acquisition cost, and retention rate need to be considered.
  • Understanding the target market size and growth trajectory is crucial for forecasting a company's potential revenue.
  • Assessing the product-market fit involves monitoring revenue growth, user expansion, and maintaining a balance between them.
  • Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) should decrease over time, indicating organic growth and product-market fit.
  • Retention rate plays a vital role in determining long-term success, highlighting the ability to retain paying customers over time.
  • Competitive advantage, such as cost leadership, positive network effects, ecosystem development, or intellectual property, can set a company apart in the market.
  • Operational efficiency and profitability are essential aspects to evaluate a company's sustainability and potential for success.
  • Unit economics and operational profit are key metrics to ensure a company can generate profit at a unit level and sustain operational profitability.
  • Operational income should be the primary focus for evaluating a company's progress towards profitability, disregarding non-operational income that can skew net profit numbers.
  • By addressing these factors, one can assess the likelihood of a company becoming successful in the future, considering aspects beyond revenue and growth.

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