Algorithmic pre-trial risk assessments in the US criminal justice system provide deterministic classification scores and recommendations to help judges in release decisions.
A research study analyzes data from a field experiment on algorithmic pre-trial risk assessments to investigate the possibility of improving the scores and recommendations.
Using a maximin robust optimization approach, the study aims to find a policy that maximizes the worst-case expected utility, ensuring the statistical safety of policy improvement.
The analysis of the field experiment data shows certain components of the risk assessment instrument can be safely improved by classifying arrestees as lower risk under various utility specifications.