Machine learning method called score-based diffusion is explored for nowcasting clouds and precipitation in a zero to three hour forecast.
Three main types of diffusion models were experimented with: standard score-based diffusion model, residual correction diffusion model, and latent diffusion model.
Results show that these diffusion models can advect existing clouds, generate and decay clouds, and even predict convective initiation.
The best performing diffusion model was the CorrDiff approach, outperforming traditional U-Net and persistence forecast in root mean squared error.