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The Art of the Agile Forecast: 4 Core Practices

  • Forecasting in Agile requires a balance between enabling effective investment decisions and fostering agility and learning.
  • Four core practices of Agile Forecasting help navigate this balance effectively.
  • The importance of defining success indicators beyond deadlines, budgets, and scope is emphasized.
  • Re-Forecasting, the Agile Rhythm, involves revisiting forecasts with empirical data and new learnings.
  • Decreasing precision in forecasts can increase accuracy by allowing space for learning and adaptation.
  • Bracketing forecasts based on probability or likelihood can enhance agility and communication.
  • Aligning precision and bracketing with the time horizon of the predicted event aids in refining forecasts as the event approaches.
  • Using Monte Carlo Simulation and historical data can provide insights into the likelihood of various outcomes.
  • Changing the conversation with stakeholders by introducing bracketed forecasts can lead to more collaborative engagements.
  • Adapting forecasting approaches based on the time horizon helps increase agility while maintaining clarity in communication.

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