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The Forecast Isn’t Broken, Your Illusion of Control Is
- Comparison between Flow and Scrum in terms of forecasting and control.
- Flow shows what's actually happening versus a possible illusion of control provided by Scrum.
- Scrum may offer a sense of knowing what will happen through planned sprints and backlogs.
- However, in reality, work often deviates from the plan due to re-scoping, dependencies, and changing priorities.
- Flow focuses on providing clarity about the system, risks, and delivery capability, rather than false certainty.
- Flow's Monte Carlo simulations offer a probability model based on system throughput, not specific story commitments.
- It doesn't make deterministic promises without clear prioritization.
- The discussion about Flow vs Scrum is often about comfort and the desire for certainty without making real decisions.
- Flow challenges the notion of control through deterministic commitments and emphasizes honesty in forecasting.
- Instead of seeking false certainty, build trust through clarity, adaptability, and real delivery data.
- The focus should be on honesty in decision-making rather than creating a tidy appearance on the board.
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