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The Sun may be more prone to flares than we thought
- A recent study estimates stars like ours produce superflares about once a century by analyzing Kepler data on tens of thousands of Sun-like stars.
- Superflares emit about 1032 erg of radiation, or 6.2444 electron volts (eV). These flares cause significant damage to radio communications, power grids, navigation systems, and spacecraft and astronauts.
- The Kepler Space Telescope monitored about 100,000 main-sequence stars continuously for years for signs of periodic dips indicating the presence of exoplanets. This same telescope recorded countless solar flares, giving observers plenty of data on stellar activity.
- The team analyzed data obtained by Kepler from 56,450 Sun-like stars between 2009 and 2013. They identified 2,889 superflares from 2,527 of the observed stars, producing an average of one superflare per star per century.
- Previous surveys found average intervals of a thousand or even ten thousand years, but this study is more precise and sensitive. Nevertheless, it is possible that more violent solar particle events and superflares occurred in the past.
- It is unclear whether gigantic flares are always accompanied by coronal mass ejections and what is the relationship between superflares and extreme solar particle events. This requires further investigation.
- The new data remind us that even the most extreme solar events are part of the Sun’s natural repertoire, urging caution and regular monitoring.
- By 2031, ESA’s Vigil probe, assisted by MPS’s Polarimetric and Magnetic Imager (PHI) instrument, will help monitor the Sun more effectively for reliable forecasting and advanced warning.
- While astronomers have not yet determined whether the Sun can produce “superflares”, numerous agencies actively monitor the Sun’s behavior to learn more about its long-term behavior.
- Previous surveys had to limit themselves to stars without any close neighbors, making this study the most precise and sensitive to date to determine the exact source of observed flares.
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