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Theory of Graph Dynamics: Predicting Israel’s Stability and Israel-Iran War Impacts on North Africa…
- The Theory of Graph Dynamics is extended to predict Israel's stability trajectory from 2025 to 2035, assessing risks of collapse or transformation.
- The model considers the Jewish diaspora globally and analyzes the impact of the Israel-Iran war on North African countries.
- Monthly events from June 2025 to November 2026 and annual events from 2027 to 2035 are detailed with recent data and historical context.
- Calculations forecast Israel's decline to M ≈ 0.47 by 2035 due to various challenges, including the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Iran tensions.
- North Africa is predicted to face oil price spikes, proxy conflicts, and refugee flows with M_NA ≈ 0.60.
- Israel, as a regional power with a high-tech economy, faces challenges such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, economic slowdown, social divisions, and governance issues.
- The Jewish diaspora supports Israel's stability through various means like aliyah, remittances, and advocacy.
- The Israel-Iran proxy war impacts North Africa through oil shocks, proxy conflicts, and refugee issues.
- The Theory of Graph Dynamics models stability using dynamic graphs within a framework capturing events with positive, normal, and negative trajectories.
- Israel's decline to M ≈ 0.47 and North Africa's instability at M_NA ≈ 0.60 are predicted by the model, with support from the diaspora delaying collapse.
- Strengths of the model include capturing cascading effects and diaspora mitigation, while limitations include data gaps and geopolitical unpredictability.
- Future work could focus on exploring peace agreements or diaspora-led investments to address the predicted scenarios.
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