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Thoughts on Innovations, and a New Framework for Predicting Things
- The article discusses the author's thoughts on predicting the future and introduces a new framework for prediction that does not rely on past data.
- It emphasizes the importance of innovation and creativity over relying solely on statistical predictions generated by current models.
- Innovation is highlighted as a process that involves working at a lower level with a focus on first principles to find novel solutions to problems.
- Examples from physics, mathematics, and software engineering are used to illustrate how innovation can be engineered by starting from scratch.
- The article challenges the idea of automating existing systems and advocates for building solutions from first principles for greater innovation.
- The discussion extends to how existing systems may not always be the best and the significance of going back to first principles for innovation.
- It distinguishes between two types of unpredictability, highlighting the challenges in predicting the future and addressing the need for new approaches.
- The article proposes a shift towards a more scientific pursuit of prediction, starting with theoretical foundations before moving towards application.
- A new approach to prediction based on a limited set of first principles is suggested, which could potentially replace existing approaches relying on vast parameters.
- Continued exploration of the more well-defined category of prediction problems is deemed practical, emphasizing the importance of computing power and new paradigms.
- The author hints at the possibility of teleportation and other advancements in a world mapped out by a prediction machine as a futuristic prospect.
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