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Big Tech’s $62bn AI spending fuels pick-and-shovel bets
- Artificial intelligence has been dominating investor consciousness more than any other technology breakthrough in the past 20 years, with tech giants spending tens of billions of dollars per quarter. Only 4% of US workers use AI every day, however, and more than two-thirds say they never do. Some investors are feeling vibes that are reminiscent of the 1990s, when the nascent internet was generating a similar euphoria. AI-related stocks have been responsible for much of the bull market that began in October 2022.
- The tech giants responsible for the massive spending are also the ones that are vastly profitable, and responsible for the bulk of the AI-related revenue at present. In the third quarter of 2024, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Apple, Meta Platforms and Microsoft spent a combined $62bn on capital expenditures. Pick-and-shovel trade investments such as Nvidia Corp are seen as less risky than direct AI investments. With tech giants pledging to continue spending, even bears such as Jim Covello see no reason to abandon the pick-and-shovel trade while the money is still flowing.
- AI payoffs will likely take more than a year or two, as technology adoption requires workflow changes and organisational structures. That means businesses won't fully reap the benefits of even today's generative AI for some time yet.
- The AI boom is not only benefiting tech giants like Nvidia, Meta and Amazon, that are pouring a lot of money into AI infrastructure and global operations, but also tangential sectors such as utilities that are benefiting from AI's electricity-thirsty data centres.
- While AI bears and bulls exchange their bets and weigh up opportunities and risk, some investors are making some kind of bet on AI without even knowing it. If you own an S&P 500 index fund, a third of your money is in eight companies, including Nvidia, Microsoft and Apple, that have parked some of their future funds on AI.
- The models that we have right now for AI systems are still not usable broadly, said Nobel Prize-winning economist and MIT professor Daron Acemoglu. Although some investors are beginning to view the buzz around AI as being similar to the euphoria generated by the nascent internet in the 1990s, the disconnect between stock prices and fundamentals could repeat past mistakes. The pick-and-shovel trade is becoming increasingly attractive than directly betting on AI, and is seen as being less risky than direct AI investments.
- Megacap tech stocks such as the FAANGS are responsible for much of the AI-related revenue and continuing spending. These companies can clearly afford the expenditure, having still generated $76bn in free cash flow. Investors have generally supported Big Tech capital spending because the sector has succeeded in the past.
- Investors should understand the difference between companies creating AI services, such as Microsoft and Alphabet, and the ones providing the infrastructure, such as chips, servers and power, that makes computing possible. Arvind Narayanan, co-author of "AI Snake Oil: What Artificial Intelligence Can Do, What It Can’t, and How to Tell the Difference," says big AI payoffs will take more than a year or two.
- The usually staid stocks of power producers are also on the rise. Vistra Corp and Constellation Energy Corp are among the best performers in the S&P 500 in 2024, helping put an index of utility stocks on track for their best year since 2019. The late ’90s was early in the internet, and that wasn’t the right time to buy, said Michael O'Rourke at Jonestrading. Picking this round's long-term winners might be a fool's errand.
- Some investors may lose their patience with AI investments, if the promises of quick spending returns are unmet. Dave Mazza, CEO of Roundhill Financial in NY, believes AI will still generate enough revenue, but thinks investors may start to reconsider the investment if there is no quick return on the spending, stating, "Investors are probably going to start voting with their feet."
- According to Bloomberg, while a special focus is on the bullish and bearish sentiments about AI investments, both sides should closely watch out for the differences between companies creating AI services and those offering the infrastructure that manages it. Investors should be careful not to blindly follow the bullish sentiments associated with companies investing in AI technologies.
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VentureBeat
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Players invested 8.34B hours into Blizzard titles in 2024, says studio
- Blizzard has released its End-Of-Year Review report, revealing player engagement statistics for 2024.
- Players invested a total of 8.34 billion hours in Blizzard games, equivalent to about 952,000 years.
- Notable statistics include Overwatch 2 players spending over 203 years on new clash maps and Diablo IV witnessing 480 million player deaths.
- Blizzard donated $12.3 million to the Breast Cancer Research Foundation from the proceeds of the 'Pink Mercy' skin in Overwatch 2.
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Massivelyop
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MassivelyOP’s 2024 Golden Yachties: Best worst way to die in an MMORPG
- The Worst way to die in an MMORPG according to MassivelyOP's 2024 Golden Yachties is dying in a fire in Star Citizen.
- The upcoming 4.0 build of Star Citizen will introduce a realistic fire propagation system that can burn players and their ships.
- The fire behavior in the game will consider factors such as material combustibility, oxygen levels, and heat of ignition source.
- Players will be able to start fires, and putting them out will involve cutting off oxygen, opening the ship to space, or using onboard fire extinguishers.
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Massivelyop
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WoW Factor: The pros and cons of stripping timer requirements from World of Warcraft’s Mythic+ runs
- World of Warcraft’s designers are contemplating replacing the timer limits for Mythic+ with a death counter.
- This potentially opens up the design space so that players are viable even if they’re not slamming through the dungeon as fast as possible.
- It also introduces some downsides: the existing problem of demanding flawless performance gets compounded, and players who are genuinely trying but not playing their best will be left out.
- Additionally, Blizz has geared much of its economy around people selling M+ runs for gold in the past, which directly benefits the studio.
- Swapping the system to a death counter makes selling runs harder.
- However, this is one of the few ways a lot of gamers can really engage with the game’s endgame loop at all. Developers must take this into consideration when thinking about changing the design dynamics for Mythic+.
- The timer disincentivizes players from dying because it slows down progress, causing efficiency to become the primary focus.
- Using a death counter incentivizes slower and safer options, making those options more viable.
- Pushing Mythic+ to be less hyper-meta by removing the timer and switching the focus to a death counter is likely a good thing overall.
- Changing the conditions for failure can help with existing issues, but it isn't a uniform solution.
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Massivelyop
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MassivelyOP’s 2024 Awards: MMO Studio of the Year
- The MMO Studio of the Year award for 2024 goes to NCSOFT.
- NCsoft received praise for granting an official license to City of Heroes Homecoming, making it a preserved and playable MMORPG.
- The decision was seen as a redemption arc for NCsoft, as City of Heroes fans had protested its closure in 2012.
- Blizzard was also recognized for its work on World of Warcraft, but NCsoft ultimately received the award.
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Massivelyop
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World of Warcraft previews the features of its Undermined update as Winter Veil brings the Christmas spirit
- World of Warcraft is previewing the features of its upcoming Undermined update in patch 11.1.
- Undermined will introduce the DRIVE system, focusing on car-specific progression and unique experiences like time trial races.
- Players can ally with one of the four Goblin cartels, gaining access to special missions and rewards.
- In addition, the Winter Veil seasonal event has arrived, offering new cosmetics and limited-time rewards.
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Fb
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Image Credit: Fb
Our Year in Review: Meta’s 2024 Highlights
- 2024 was a year of innovation at Meta, with advancements in AI, AR glasses, and app features.
- Meta Llama 3, an advanced AI assistant, was introduced as an open source AI tool for various applications.
- Orion, Meta's first AR glasses, and Meta Quest 3S, affordable mixed reality glasses, were launched.
- Meta focused on adding user-requested features to apps like WhatsApp, Threads, and Instagram while prioritizing platform safety.
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TechJuice
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Image Credit: TechJuice
Meta Introduces “Trial Reels” to Help Instagram Creators Test New Content with Non-Followers
- Meta has introduced a new feature on Instagram called 'Trial Reels' to assist content creators in testing new content with non-followers.
- The 'Trial Reels' feature allows creators to experiment with new ideas without immediate feedback from their existing followers.
- Creators can activate the 'Trial' setting before publishing a reel, making it viewable only to non-followers.
- After tracking engagement data and comparing the performance with previous posts, creators can decide whether to share the content with their followers or explore other options.
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Siliconera
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Image Credit: Siliconera
New World of Warcraft 11.1 WoWcast details Mounts, Delves
- Blizzard has released a new WoWcast video detailing some of the upcoming content in WoW's Version 11.1 update, including new Mounts and Delves.
- The video showcases rewards for the Goblin Cartel reputation system, customizable parts for the D.R.I.V.E. system, and two new delves: Side Street Sluice and Excavation Site 9.
- Several new mounts are confirmed for WoW 11.1, including a Goblin airship and two mounts from the upcoming raid.
- The second season of The War Within is expected to launch shortly after the Undermined update, bringing new Mythic+ dungeons for players.
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Massivelyop
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Massively Overthinking: Our MMO predictions for 2025
- Guild Wars 2 may come to proper consoles, Lost Ark should do it too. Tencent may go quiet on Tarisland and announce a western sunset. Final Fantasy XIV may grab attention by doing something unexpected at the beginning of summer. Elder Scrolls Online may shake up its cadence by delivering a new zone for its chapter that isn’t an obvious nostalgia pull. Albion Online may completely change its content rollout and do a full expansion and a NA fresh start server. Pearl Abyss may finally get Crimson Desert out the door. EVE Online may do nothing different and end 2025 in exactly the same playerbase and revenue spot.
- Diablo IV will have a problem with even bigger damage numbers and too much loot dropping. New World’s season 7 may not bring back players, as PvP people have moved on and there’s little promise for PvE players.The Riot MMO may show something. Marvel Heroes’ private server may have a comeback, but Disney may shut it down.
- Guild Wars 2 may forego a big new feature in its 2025 expansion and instead do something else, like customizable pets or powers. Black Desert Online may continue to release some good updates, but will mostly have a quiet year. Warframe may start talking up its ambitions post-1999 and more story and NPC interactions may be the order of operations.
- Palia may fully launch and break into the mainstream. Ashes of Creation may have its first beta test. WoW may launch Midnight and the housing will be acceptable. Albion Online may completely change its content rollout and do a full expansion and an NA fresh start server. EVE Frontier may collapse.
- Star Citizen may continue to rake in cash even as fanbase gets worse and the signs of weakness become ever more glaring. FFXIV may have a relatively quiet year with a new deep dungeon releasing. SMITE 2 may launch by the end of the year.
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BGR
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Image Credit: BGR
I’m a European iPhone user, and Meta’s DMA requests to Apple worry me
- The European Union's Digital Markets Act (DMA) has raised concerns among iPhone users regarding the impact on Apple products.
- Users worry about the introduction of features such as iPhone sideloading, third-party app stores, and third-party payment systems.
- Meta (formerly Facebook) has made multiple interoperability requests to Apple under the DMA, seeking similar benefits.
- Apple has expressed concerns about privacy implications if Meta's requests were implemented.
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Massivelyop
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EverQuest Online Adventures rogue server Sandstorm celebrates Christmas
- The EverQuest Online Adventures rogue server Sandstorm has started its Christmas holiday event.
- The event includes a meta quest, 10 daily quests, a related raid, and a named monster fight in the open world.
- Recent patches have made adjustments to desert biome loot tables, added quests, increased the level cap to 49, and fixed various bugs.
- Players can help the Skyrgamur company of 17 prepare for a big Christmas party.
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Tech Story
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Apple vs. Meta: Escalating Disputes Over Interoperability and User Privacy Understanding the Digital Markets Act
- Apple and Meta are clashing over interoperability requests, as Meta tries to gain deeper access to Apple's software tools
- Apple has resisted these requests due to privacy and security concerns for its users
- These tensions arise during the implementation of the EU's Digital Markets Act (DMA) to promote fair competition in the digital industry
- The DMA requires major firms like Apple to allow competitors and app developers to interoperate with their platforms and mandates fines for non-compliance
- Meta has submitted 15 requests for interoperability, seeking extensive access to Apple’s proprietary technologies
- Apple argues that the access requested by Meta could compromise user privacy and security and references privacy violations by Facebook
- Meta accuses Apple of using privacy as an excuse to engage in anti-competitive behavior
- The European Commission is responsible for enforcing competition laws in the EU and is assessing Apple's compliance with the DMA
- Increased interoperability could improve convenience for consumers, but grant extensive access to software tools could erode privacy safeguards
- The anticipated decision in 2025 will not only determine Apple’s compliance with the DMA but also influence the evolving relationship between privacy protection, innovation, and competition in the tech sector
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Hackernoon
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Image Credit: Hackernoon
Metaverse Growth Brings New Data Protection Headaches
- The metaverse, or the combination of both the physical and digital realities, has been growing into school, healthcare, gaming and all aspects of life through augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR).
- Data collection in metaverse is on a rise and could lead to high data security concerns, like large data breaches or targeted attacks. The ability to track health data, location tracking, personal habits, workplace information, social patterns, and more in one place increases the vulnerability.
- Security solutions to guard valuable digital data and assets involves installation of parental control tools, choosing the right programs, supporting ethical data collection and storage, educating oneself and loved ones, pushing for better regulation, securing accounts and managing digital assets.
- Virtual reality in healthcare enables remote consultations and surgery assistance which have already been proven to be effective and safe.
- Virtual learning becomes easily accessible to students with mobility issues and in remote parts of the world, using AR and VR technology.
- In the metaverse, gaming offers opportunities for socializing, co-op gaming, virtual tours, wellness, and fitness.
- Security concerns related to an expansion of metaverse activities include large data breaches where stolen information could lead to identity theft, stolen bank information or access to a user’s personal data. Targeted attacks also pose significant risks as the metaverse environment provides more opportunities for bullying and harassment.
- The risks can be mitigated through installing parental control tools, educating oneself and loved ones, pushing for better regulation, choosing the right programs, securing accounts and managing digital assets.
- The metaverse is inevitable and comes with a healthy amount of caution and generous amount of adventure, while ensuring our data defense skills are mastered.
- Virtual workspace offers new construction possibilities with the ability to experience and understand the designs in the digital realm before they actually exist.
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Massivelyop
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Casually Classic: Putting a cap on WoW Classic’s crazy 2024 run
- WoW Classic turned five this year and has been through some momentous changes in 2024.
- The Season of Discovery to Hardcore, 20th Anniversary Realms, and Classic Plus appeared in 2024.
- WoW Classic’s journey in 2024 started with the studio releasing a roadmap for Classic.
- February, the second phase of Season of Discovery came with the new Gnomeregan raid.
- Beta testing for Cataclysm Classic kicked off in March, bringing back monumental changes.
- Cataclysm Classic launched in April that brought with it some changes from the original expansion’s vision.
- The November 13th Warcraft Direct stream had a lot of impactful news for WoW Classic fans.
- Classic Plus, a set of new 20th Anniversary fresh start realms were around the end of November.
- WoW Classic Classic launched next day with PvE, PvP, and Hardcore realms.
- Casually Classic: Analyzing WoW Classic’s 2024 roadmap, led to expectant upcoming Classic reveals in 2025.
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