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Medium
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Nvidia Projects $10 Billion in Chip Sales, but US-China Tensions Loom
- Nvidia projects over $10 billion in international chip sales, underscoring its dominance in the AI hardware market.
- US-China tensions and export controls on advanced AI chips present a significant challenge to Nvidia's revenue streams, market dominance, and long-term growth strategy.
- Nvidia's immediate response to the export controls has been to develop compliant versions of its restricted chips, such as the A800 and H800.
- However, the long-term viability of this approach remains uncertain as the performance gap between the restricted and compliant chips could limit the competitiveness of Chinese AI development.
- The emergence of a black market for restricted chips undermines Nvidia's pricing strategies, creates supply chain vulnerabilities, and complicates enforcement of export controls.
- China's response to US export controls includes significant government funding and support for domestic semiconductor development.
- Nvidia is diversifying its product portfolio and expanding its geographic presence to reduce reliance on any single region and product line.
- The launch of products like the Jetson Orin Nano Super and Nvidia's DRIVE platform positions it to capitalize on emerging trends in high-growth markets, including the automotive sector.
- Nvidia's proactive response, a combination of mitigation, diversification, and a relentless focus on technological advancement, positions it for continued success in the long term.
- Nvidia's commitment to global collaboration, its investment in cutting-edge research and development, and its strategic expansion into new markets and sectors demonstrate a clear vision for a future where AI continues to transform industries and drive progress worldwide.
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Moneyweb
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Big Tech’s $62bn AI spending fuels pick-and-shovel bets
- Artificial intelligence has been dominating investor consciousness more than any other technology breakthrough in the past 20 years, with tech giants spending tens of billions of dollars per quarter. Only 4% of US workers use AI every day, however, and more than two-thirds say they never do. Some investors are feeling vibes that are reminiscent of the 1990s, when the nascent internet was generating a similar euphoria. AI-related stocks have been responsible for much of the bull market that began in October 2022.
- The tech giants responsible for the massive spending are also the ones that are vastly profitable, and responsible for the bulk of the AI-related revenue at present. In the third quarter of 2024, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Apple, Meta Platforms and Microsoft spent a combined $62bn on capital expenditures. Pick-and-shovel trade investments such as Nvidia Corp are seen as less risky than direct AI investments. With tech giants pledging to continue spending, even bears such as Jim Covello see no reason to abandon the pick-and-shovel trade while the money is still flowing.
- AI payoffs will likely take more than a year or two, as technology adoption requires workflow changes and organisational structures. That means businesses won't fully reap the benefits of even today's generative AI for some time yet.
- The AI boom is not only benefiting tech giants like Nvidia, Meta and Amazon, that are pouring a lot of money into AI infrastructure and global operations, but also tangential sectors such as utilities that are benefiting from AI's electricity-thirsty data centres.
- While AI bears and bulls exchange their bets and weigh up opportunities and risk, some investors are making some kind of bet on AI without even knowing it. If you own an S&P 500 index fund, a third of your money is in eight companies, including Nvidia, Microsoft and Apple, that have parked some of their future funds on AI.
- The models that we have right now for AI systems are still not usable broadly, said Nobel Prize-winning economist and MIT professor Daron Acemoglu. Although some investors are beginning to view the buzz around AI as being similar to the euphoria generated by the nascent internet in the 1990s, the disconnect between stock prices and fundamentals could repeat past mistakes. The pick-and-shovel trade is becoming increasingly attractive than directly betting on AI, and is seen as being less risky than direct AI investments.
- Megacap tech stocks such as the FAANGS are responsible for much of the AI-related revenue and continuing spending. These companies can clearly afford the expenditure, having still generated $76bn in free cash flow. Investors have generally supported Big Tech capital spending because the sector has succeeded in the past.
- Investors should understand the difference between companies creating AI services, such as Microsoft and Alphabet, and the ones providing the infrastructure, such as chips, servers and power, that makes computing possible. Arvind Narayanan, co-author of "AI Snake Oil: What Artificial Intelligence Can Do, What It Can’t, and How to Tell the Difference," says big AI payoffs will take more than a year or two.
- The usually staid stocks of power producers are also on the rise. Vistra Corp and Constellation Energy Corp are among the best performers in the S&P 500 in 2024, helping put an index of utility stocks on track for their best year since 2019. The late ’90s was early in the internet, and that wasn’t the right time to buy, said Michael O'Rourke at Jonestrading. Picking this round's long-term winners might be a fool's errand.
- Some investors may lose their patience with AI investments, if the promises of quick spending returns are unmet. Dave Mazza, CEO of Roundhill Financial in NY, believes AI will still generate enough revenue, but thinks investors may start to reconsider the investment if there is no quick return on the spending, stating, "Investors are probably going to start voting with their feet."
- According to Bloomberg, while a special focus is on the bullish and bearish sentiments about AI investments, both sides should closely watch out for the differences between companies creating AI services and those offering the infrastructure that manages it. Investors should be careful not to blindly follow the bullish sentiments associated with companies investing in AI technologies.
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Siliconangle
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Researchers open-source Genesis simulation platform for training robots
- A research group has released Genesis, an AI simulation engine for robot development.
- Genesis allows training of robotics-focused AI models 10,000 times faster than real-world training.
- The platform includes a physics engine, a tool called RoboGen for generating virtual robots, and a chatbot interface for designing simulations using natural language.
- Genesis also provides the ability to capture footage of simulations for training data and customization of camera angles and rendering methods.
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Insider
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Nvidia stock has another 23% upside and the success of Blackwell will be the chipmaker's big story of 2025, Morgan Stanley says
- Morgan Stanley said other noise would fade by mid-2025, and the stock is poised for another 20% gain.
- Nvidia's Blackwell chip will be the company's biggest story in 2025.
- Morgan Stanley reiterated its "overweight" rating on Nvidia stock and said the chipmaker remained its "top pick" going into next year.
- The bank issued a price target of $166 a share, implying a 23% increase from where the stock was trading on Friday around $134.82.
- Investors are already feeling bullish about the Blackwell chips, which are expected to launch in early 2025.
- Nvidia's new chip could dispel a handful of near to medium-term anxieties investors have about the stock.
- Concerns about Blackwell's rollout should "completely disappear" by the second half of next year.
- Even after a 170% rally in 2024, forecasters are still generally bullish on Nvidia going into next year.
- The continued excitement around the AI trade in the stock market is among the top themes investors see shaping the stock market in 2025.
- Nvidia's next-gen artificial intelligence-enabling chip will be a driving force behind revenue in H2'25, which could mean significant upside for the stock.
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TechCrunch
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Nvidia clears regulatory hurdle to acquire Run:ai
- Nvidia has received regulatory approval from the European Union to acquire Run:ai.
- The European Commission found that the acquisition would not create a monopoly as other hardware options compatible with Nvidia would still be available on the market.
- However, the acquisition is still pending approval from the Department of Justice in the U.S.
- The estimated purchase price for the acquisition is around $700 million.
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Pymnts
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European Commission Approves Nvidia’s Proposed Acquisition of Run:ai
- The European Commission approved Nvidia’s proposed acquisition of Run:ai unconditionally.
- No competition concerns were raised in the European Economic Area (EEA).
- Nvidia designs GPUs for data center applications, while Run:ai supplies GPU orchestration software.
- The acquisition will not negatively impact competition as alternative software options will remain available in the market.
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The Robot Report
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From AI to humanoids: top robotics trends of 2024
- Agility deployed Digit humanoids at Spanx and signed a deal with Schaeffler.
- Boston Dynamics introduced the new electric Atlas humanoid robot.
- NVIDIA supported humanoids and highlighted Blackwell at GTC.
- Alphabet invested $5.6B in Waymo.
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Ubuntu Handbook
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NVIDIA Driver 565 Available to Install in Ubuntu / Linux Mint via PPA
- NVIDIA 565.77 driver package is now available in PPA for Ubuntu and Linux Mint.
- The driver features VK_EXT_depth_clamp_control support and improved Wayland support.
- To install the driver, add the PPA and run the necessary commands.
- To uninstall the driver, use the 'Additional Drivers' utility or run a terminal command.
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Tech Story
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Nvidia Acquisition of Run:ai Approved by EU for $700 Million
- The European Commission has approved Nvidia’s acquisition of Run: ai for $700 million, clearing any competition concerns in the GPU market.
- The acquisition by Nvidia of Run: ai for a sum of $700 million was cleared unconditionally by the European Commission, despite the potential competition concerns associated with the deal on the GPU market.
- The Approval here is settled upon the technical review of the deal that investigates its potential effects on the overall technology market, particularly against Nvidia’s dominance in the establishment of GPU that is required for AI and machine learning purposes.
- With the approval, Nvidia aims to expand its artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities by consolidating its leadership in the fastest-growing tech space.
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Dev
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Hopper Architecture for Deep Learning and AI
- The NVIDIA Hopper architecture introduces significant advancements in deep learning and AI performance.
- Fourth-generation Tensor Cores with FP8 precision double computational throughput while reducing memory requirements.
- New Transformer Engine enhances transformer-based model training and inference for large-scale language models.
- NVIDIA Grace Hopper Superchip integrates Hopper GPU with Grace CPU, providing efficient data processing and high throughput.
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Insider
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Image Credit: Insider
Broadcom's CEO plays down an Intel bid: 'No hostile offers'
- Broadcom's CEO, Hock Tan, dismisses the possibility of a takeover bid for rival Intel.
- Tan is focused on riding the AI wave and has no interest in hostile takeovers.
- Broadcom's market capitalization has reached $1 trillion due to the AI boom.
- Intel, on the other hand, has struggled and experienced a significant decrease in value.
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Macrumors
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Apple Teams Up With NVIDIA to Speed Up AI Language Models
- Apple has collaborated with NVIDIA to enhance the performance of large language models (LLMs) for AI applications.
- Apple integrated its Recurrent Drafter (ReDrafter) technology into NVIDIA's TensorRT-LLM framework, resulting in a 2.7x speed increase in tokens generated per second.
- The collaboration reduces user-perceived latency, decreases GPU usage, and reduces power consumption.
- Developers can benefit from faster token generation on NVIDIA GPUs for production LLM applications.
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VC Cafe
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Image Credit: VC Cafe
Weekly #FIRGUN Newsletter – Dec 20 2024
- The concept of Firgun, a Hebrew term meaning genuine joy in the accomplishment of others, is explained, as is the relevance of the Hanukkah festival, which celebrates success against the odds.
- In the tech world, Databricks has secured $10bn funding, Nvidia has launched a smaller, cheaper AI supercomputer and SoftBank is investing $100bn in US businesses over the next four years, among other key developments.
- Israeli start-ups are also having a record-breaking time, having managed to attract vital funding despite a challenging year.
- In terms of M&A, Boomi has acquired Israeli start-up Rivery for $100m, while the web3 platform Hexagate was picked up by Chainalysis.
- The issue of AI ethics has been explored in a new report from MMC Ventures, while Coller Capital has also released findings, showing LPs are supportive of new entrants in a changing market.
- A range of other subjects are covered, including European and US venture capital fundraising trends, and a demo of the Genesis Project, an open source generative AI video model based on physics.
- A series of key posts by VC Cafe this year are highlighted, covering everything from generative AI to pre-seed rounds and the media and entertainment tech scene in 2025.
- Finally, various festive wishes are expressed, with positive hopes for 2025 and a range of festivals and celebrations given a mention.
- Most of all, the author takes time to thank readers of his newsletter, who have kept him energised throughout the year.
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Semiengineering
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Chip Industry Week In Review
- Cohu is set to buy process control and analytics software firm Tignis.
- NXP will acquire UK-based Aviva Links for $242.5mn cash, in a deal expected to close during H1 2025.
- The US Dept. of Commerce will provide up to $406m CHIPS Act funding to GlobalWafers America and MEMC to support the construction of silicon wafer manufacturing facilities in Texas and Missouri.
- The DoC finalised an award to SK Hynix for up to $458m CHIPS Act funding to build a memory packaging plant and R&D facility in West Lafayette, Indiana.
- MIT engineers have developed a faster multi-layer chip creation technique, without bulky silicon wafers via stacking high-quality semiconducting material directly on top of each other, increasing processing performance.
- Cadstrom has raised $6.8m in seed funding for its AI validation tools for electronic hardware and PCB design.
- Synopsys and SiMa.ai are teaming up on a solution for automotive companies that combines Synopsys’ EDA tools, auto-grade IP, and hardware-assisted verification solutions with SiMa.ai’s machine learning accelerator IP and software stack.
- Infineon will supply a complete chipset to battery manufacturer, Eve Energy, as part of a collaboration on automotive battery management systems.
- IBM surveyed automakers to explore the shift to software-defined vehicles which is facing technical and cultural challenges.
- Microchip Technology announced a line of CAN FD System Basis Chips with an integrated high-speed CAN FD transceiver and 5V LDO.
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Medium
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Image Credit: Medium
From Gaming to Healthcare: The Expanding Horizons of XR Design
- Gaming industry has set the standard for engaging XR experiences.
- XR is transforming healthcare through simulation-based training, precision surgeries, pain management, and therapy.
- XR is creating immersive learning environments in education, catering to diverse learning styles.
- Retailers are leveraging AR for virtual try-ons and bridging the gap between digital and physical shopping experiences.
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